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  Radial truck tire industry, promising perspective Category:Industry News    Browse(692)  
 
 

Radial truck prospects
The global tire industry, tire 80% -90% proportion, is divided into passenger cars (including light trucks) and trucks (in the heavy truck) categories. In recent years, the growth of the tire industry, mainly from the rapid growth of automobile tires.

Automobile tire market is divided into complementary (OE) and replacement (Replacement) two sub-markets. According to Datamonitor's figures, in 2002 by automotive replacement market revenue accounting to 86.50%. Expected after 2003, with the rapid growth of global vehicle production, the ratio should be decreased, but in terms of sales volume or sales revenue, the global tire market, mainly to replace the market has not changed the overall pattern.

In recent years, with the growth of the automotive industry, automobile tire production in China more than 18% compound annual growth rate. China to invest as an important driving force of economic growth, is still the status of the process of heavy industrialization, and the gap between passenger cars, making China's automobile tire production structure and consumption structure and the global average level of developed countries and significantly different, truck tires and The proportion of other fetal significantly higher than passenger car tires.

As the Chinese truck tire demand and production are much greater than other countries, their input is also far more than other countries, while the use of high overload conditions exist, so the Chinese truck tire truck radial tire production technology in particular has a door to the world advanced features. All steel truck radial tires are now listed companies is the main source of major profit.

Significant increase in sales of all-steel truck tires

Domestic truck tire market to replace the main, while supporting market demands one vehicle factory price reduction pressure, the second is a long period of payment, and supporting large stocks, so profit margins significantly less than the replacement market, but because of Original replacement tire brands significant market power, Therefore, each of the ancillary market is still highly valued. Major companies replace domestic market / matching ratio generally is about 5:2.

Truck tire exports ratio roughly 30% of the basic products for the replacement market, but many low-cost strategy to lower gross margins, earnings are mostly from the export tax rebate (currently 9% tax rate).

Overall, the truck tire industry, the ratio of sales: Domestic supporting 1.5 / domestic replace 5.5 / export 3. Profit contribution to the sequence is replaced, export, supporting.

According to the situation a few years before the expected rate of radial truck tires (basic for the steel) the annual increase of 5 percentage points. 2009-2011, steel tire industry sales growth rate was 3.66%, 13.25% and 15.58% in 2009, steel tire sales in the 57 million or so.

Limited expansion of production capacity this year and next

The rapid growth of demand for steel tire, and the industry in short supply situation in 2002-2003 the first release under the production history of corporate priority benefit, making the last 3-4 years, the sharp increase in new construction and expansion projects, industry production capacity a "Great Leap Forward."

New capacity in 2006-2008 focused on the release, we expect the current domestic steel production capacity 65 million tires about building capacity in a 5 million -600 million. Industry production capacity than our current forecast for 2009 sales of over-supply of nearly 20%. As the rapid growth of demand for steel tire, in fact since 2005 the industry capacity relative surplus each year in the state of demand in the next 2-3 years will continue to show rapid growth, so most of the existing capacity of enterprises mainly for the future development reserve.

According to our survey show that, as the financial crisis, the occurrence of tension because of funding uncertainties and industry trends in the Bu, Qi Ye right project inputs has become Jinshen. The current expansion and new projects, especially private capital investment in the project actually Department stagnation. We expect 2009, 2010, the real new production capacity can be limited.

Qingdao Double Star Tire Industry Optimism

Although natural rubber tire industry profits by excessive price fluctuations, so the industry to grasp the long-term uncertainty. But in "Raisin" economic situation, the tire industry in 2009, two-You Wang in 2010 continued to grow, supply and demand Zhubupingheng, Chengbenshangsheng limited to good posture, Yinglishuiping Jiang maintained at a high level, so for industry "overweight" rating.

Considering that most auto parts company now valued at 20 times the level of PE, the tire industry is only 16 times and even lower valuations. Before the market too pessimistic outlook on the industry expected, is the leading tire company valuation lower than other parts of the main reasons. But we demand, supply, costs, gross margin analysis of several aspects of view, the next two years the industry outlook is not so pessimistic as previously expected, so we think it is undervalued tire. Recommendations concern Aeolus, Qingdao Double Star and Qian Luntai. From the performance level of flexibility and valuation point of view, more attractive, Qingdao Double Star.

Qingdao Double Star: South 1.3 million in the coke-steel tire production, the current capacity of Qingdao Double Star has 3.9 million steel (not including Dongfeng tire 300 000), three million semi-steel (depending on market conditions, the company intends to expand production to 6 million). In March this year, the company sales rebounded 1-April, is expected to complete a total of nearly 600,000 tires steel, semi-steel tire 800 000. Care is expected in the second half as the dealer inventory levels returned to normal, sales may be down. If the passenger and cargo markets pick up, there are over may be expected. Dongfeng tire in 2009 acquired the tax subsidy will be more than 70 million yuan, 0.14 yuan per share. 2009,2010 expects earnings per share were 0.54 yuan and 0.47 yuan. Performance Improvement of magnitude larger, the lower valuation can focus on.

 Part:Development of the Chinese tire industry    Next:Days Thai Rubber Factory Shanghai Exhibition    
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